Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Forget the stock market's dismal decade of much-ado-about-nothing and ignore the USD Dollar's declination; when it comes to reflection on what this once great nation has 'created' since 2001, the following chart from Pennsylvania's Department of Public Welfare sums it up better than most.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by CrownThomas.
As we hear more and more pundits talk about the soaring consumer confidence, the "recovery", and how the fundamentals are improving, keep in mind that retail investors are still not in equities. As of November 14th, equities continued their streak of consecutive mutual fund outflows that dates back to February of this year.
During that time, more than $115 billion dollars has left the equities market. Where's it going? Well, in spite of the Fed's best attempts at pushing the "dumb money" out of fixed income and into chasing returns, it looks as though the exact opposite is happening.
Oddly enough, the S&P seems to be continuing its climb toward the heavens, even with this outflow. This certainly couldn't be the work of Kevin Henry and bank prop desks putting their free money to work could it?
From Market Shadows Newsletter (11/25): From Fed, With Love.
Courtesy of Richard Chappell (Springheel Jack)
Friday was a key day for equities, even though it was the half-day after Thanksgiving and volume was low. At the start of the day, the SPX faced a double trendline resistance in the 1400 area. SPX broke confidently above the resistance lines, and the 100 daily moving average in the 1407 area. It closed at 1409.
I would have expected resistance levels to hold if there was going to be much further downside before Christmas. I am now leaning bullish into the new year.
Here’s the SPX daily chart, showing the big rising wedge from the October 2011 low:
[click on charts to enlarge]
I am turning generally bullish for at least a few weeks or months, as the overall setup on equities suggests that a more significant top may not be far away. Let’s look at the rising wedge on SPX. That has broken back up over the broken rising wedge support trendline now, but that doesn’t mean that the pattern has failed, or that it has already played out. These patterns often see a significant move up after the first break downwards, and those moves up can often make new highs.
A good example of that is the rising wedge that formed on oil between June and September, shown below on the USO ETF. After the initial break down in late August, USO went on to make a (2%) higher high in September to form the second top on a double or “M top.”
Only after that second high did the main decline begin, with the first decline having set up the valley low on that pattern indicating to a target at 33. Since then, a falling wedge (the bullish equivalent of a bearish rising wedge) has formed with a double-bottom formed at the low there. Advances or declines on these patterns often end with a second reversal pattern. If SPX goes on to establish a double-top then the second high would usually be within 3% of the first high.
Here are those setups shown below on the USO daily chart. On a break above 33, USO would have a double-bottom target in the 34.7 area, where it would hit an established resistance zone in the 34.6 to 35 range:
That brings me to this week’s trade setup on Vodafone (VOD). On the VOD chart below, a rising wedge has formed and broken down, and the overall setup for the chart is bearish. However there is a bounce opportunity here if we see a retracement early next week, which we would normally see at the start of the week after Thanksgiving.
My trade here will be to buy VOD at 25 or less on any retracement next week, with a stop at 24.25, under the established support zone at 24.5 which held the recent low. The RSI reached an oversold reading not seen in the last seven years there, and I’m looking for either a right shoulder on a head and shoulders pattern to form here, or the second top of a double-top. My first upside target is 26.5. If VOD hits 26.5, I plan to sell half and set the stop on the remaining half to break even. I will sell the remaining half if it reaches 29–in the area for a second top of a double-top, and under strong long term resistance in the 29.5 area. Here’s how that looks on the VOD daily chart:
There are several potential bad news events for equities between now and January, such as the failure to reach an agreement on the fiscal cliff. I am concerned about news derailing the market between here and Xmas, but am inclined to trust the technical setup rather than news or fundamentals as the technicals tend to perform better. If the market does get derailed the technicals should give some warning at least.
The seasonality at this time of year is strong, with a potential retracement next week and a strongly bullish lean from there into the new year. This technical analysis is line with Lee Alder’s observations on the money flow from the Federal Reserve to the Primary Dealers.
SPX has a strong resistance area to negotiate between 1420 and 1430, but as long as it can get past that, I’m looking for a test of the highs.
From Market Shadows Newsletter (11/25): From Fed, With Love.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
We have already discussed the student loan bubble, and its popping previously, most extensively in this article. Today, we get the Q3 consumer credit breakdown update courtesy of the NY Fed's quarterly credit breakdown. And it is quite ghastly. As of September 30, Federal (not total, just Federal) rose to a gargantuan $956 billion, an increase of $42 billion in the quarter - the biggest quarterly update since 2006.
But this is no surprise to anyone who read our latest piece on the topic. What also shouldn't be a surprise, at least to our readers who read about it here first, but what will stun the general public are the two charts below, the first of which shows the amount of 90+ day student loan delinquencies, and the second shows the amount of newly delinquent 30+ day student loan balances. The charts speak for themselves.
This is how the Fed described this "anomaly":
Outstanding student loan debt now stands at $956 billion, an increase of $42 billion since last quarter. However, of the $42 billion, $23 billion is new debt while the remaining $19 billion is attributed to previously defaulted student loans that have been updated on credit reports this quarter. As a result, the percent of student loan balances 90+ days delinquent increased to 11 percent this quarter.
oh and this from footnote 2:
As explained in a Liberty Street Economics blog post, these delinquency rates for student loans are likely to understate actual delinquency rates because almost half of these loans are currently in deferment, in grace periods or in forbearance and therefore temporarily not in the repayment cycle. This implies that among loans in the repayment cycle delinquency rates are roughly twice as high.
We'll let readers calculate on their own what a surge in 90+ day delinquency from 9% to 11% (or as footnote 2 explains: 22%) in one quarter on $1 trillion in student debt means. For those confused, read all about it in this September article: "The Next Subprime Crisis Is Here: Over $120 Billion In Federal Student Loans In Default" which predicted just this.
* * *
And so it's official: Pop goes the student loan bubble, as just confirmed by the Fed.
Luckily student debt is dischargeable in bankruptcy. Oh wait. It isn't.
Source: Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, Household Credit Excel Source
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Earlier we noted the dismal volume in the markets today, it turns out we under-estimated just how dismal... Today was the lowest Monday-after-Thanksgiving Day NYSE volume since 1996! We suspect you will not hear that 'fact' on your favorite business media channel when they crow of the 'well off the lows' performance today...
Speechless...
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
Courtesy of JW Jones of TRADERS VIDEO PLAYBOOK
The amount of negative news that we have seen recently has been mind-blowing. Europe is going into recession, Greece and several other countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, the Middle East is a powder-keg, and the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff. Shockingly for most retail traders, the past week has produced a very strong return for U.S. equity indexes as well as risk assets in general.
Retail investors often times lose money because they focus on the financial media and all of the negative news that is out there. However, there is never an absence of negative news or potentially poor economic possibilities. Markets certainly can decline, but news is overrated as a driver. The markets are cyclical in nature and never move in a straight line.
Based on what I was reading from most of the financial blogosphere recently, you would think that the entire world was about to end. A few blogs were calling for an all out collapse late last week or a possible crash this past Monday, November 19. As is typically the case, the market prognosticators were wrong with the calls for a crash in financial markets.
At TradersVideoPlaybook, we were expecting higher prices. At our service, we lay out regular videos covering a variety of underlying assets from the S&P 500 Index and oil futures, to gold and treasury futures. The focus is purely on analysis of various underlying assets across multiple time frames. We cover intraday time frames as well as daily and weekly swing time frames throughout the week with videos and written updates.
To put into perspective what we were seeing in the marketplace on Monday November 19, the following chart was sent out to our members during intraday trading that day.
The target we were expecting was at the top of the recent channel. As shown directly on the chart above was my comment that if the 1,410 level on the S&P 500 Index could be taken out to the upside, the bulls would have an opportunity to move prices higher into the end of the year.
The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index after the close on Friday November 23:
The S&P 500 Index moved right into the expected target price range and closed literally at the very top end of the range shown above. If prices move considerably higher, the bulls will have broken the descending channel and higher prices are likely.
Next week’s price action is going to have a dramatic impact on the price direction of the broader market indexes. One important aspect is that the large move higher shown above came on exceptionally light volume due to the holiday week. In light of that, a strong reversal cannot be ruled out. Caution is warranted.
One of the most important charts to monitor over the past few weeks has been the U.S. Dollar Index futures. Typically a stronger Dollar has been bearish for equities and risk assets in general. On Friday we saw a very strong selloff in the U.S. Dollar Index futures as shown below.
As can be seen above, the U.S. Dollar Index futures closed on Friday right at a key support level having given back much of the recent gains. If the Dollar continues to move lower it should put a floor under stock indexes and push risk assets higher overall.
Two major moves higher occurred in light of this weakening Dollar on Friday in both gold and silver futures. The precious metals had a very strong move higher after the U.S. Presidential election and have been consolidating now for a few weeks. Prices in both gold and silver had strong moves higher on Friday which were accompanied by very strong volume. The daily chart of gold futures is shown below.
Gold futures had a huge move higher supported by strong volume. I believe that we will see the $1,800 / ounce resistance level tested in the near term. This time of the year is bullish for gold and silver and should the strong seasonality correspond with a weak U.S. Dollar, higher prices are likely in the precious metals sector.
I was expecting strong action in both gold and silver when they broke higher after nearly testing their 200 day moving averages. I think the quarters ahead should be strong for both metals. Time will tell whether oil futures and the broader equity markets will also move higher. Monitoring the Dollar Index futures closely is an important part of assessing the market's directional bias.
We had a lot of negative news in the headlines last week, and Mr. Market has fooled many investors and traders. For our chart-based take on the markets, consider taking advantage of our weekend special by clicking the link below.
JW
Click here for the RISK-FREE 30-DAY TRIAL to Traders Video Playbook, only $1 for the first 30 days!
This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the TradersVideoPlaybook.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
While the developed world's central banks may enjoy trading FX and stocks, either directly or indirectly, with each other in a demonstration of monetary policy "stability", the historically biggest source of capital inflows into stocks - the retail investor - has once again just said "nein", for the 17th consecutive week, and excluding tiny inflows of $95 million in the week of July 18 and $907 million in the week ended May 30, the retail investor has pulled money from stocks for an unprecedented 39 consecutive weeks, with $6.6 billion pulled out in the last week, the most since the first week of October.
In fact going back to the beginning of 2010, according to ICI, while $44.5 billion has been invested into domestic equity stock funds, $412 billion has been pulled out. Where has the money gone on an almost dollar for dollar basis: bonds, confirming that the New Normal mantra is all about return of capital.
And no, it was not always like this.
So while banks are using the record cash deposited with them (as we reported several days ago), as well as the tens of billions in excess reserve capital inflow each month from the Fed to ramp stocks higher, the US investors no longer cares about promises by TV talking heads to "shift money out of bonds and into stocks now, because it is a once in a lifetime opportunity to do so", or that money in the bank is worthless under ZIRP so buy 300x P/E money losing retailers, or that the DJIA can go to 36,000. The US investor is simply done with the stock market.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Judging from the market's reaction (which after all is the only thing that counts apparently), we have little to fear but fear itself - especially when it comes to real fundamental earnings. However, for those with depth perception issues (two data points, a trend do make), color blindness (red is always green as it's 'off-the-lows'), and ADHD (10-second soundbites only), the following chart should help clarify just how bad Q3 revenues were - and how weak the recent trend is (hint - from the upper right to the lower left is not good).
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
David A. Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com
The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. Examining Elliott Wave patterns can provide clues on market direction. There is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, but we do our best to mix up a home-cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.
In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.
Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December and hope to see this barrier taken out soon.
Consider joining us at www.MarketTrendForecast.com for occasional free reports and or a 33% discount to join and get regularly daily forecast updates on the markets and precious metals that are outside the box.
Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain
"The filing of this lawsuit now by Weber officially begins the raging clusterfuck portion of the story, as he and his lawyers are releasing lurid details not only about Kotz and Maloney, but about a host of other SEC and SEC IG officials.
It's very strong stuff: the only things missing from this lawsuit are tales of SEC officials running white-slavery rings and snorting brown-brown off the corpses of strippers with West African rebels...
It's hard to say how all of this will shake out. Certainly, from a P.R. standpoint, it'll be ugly for the SEC. One other storyline to follow: If the Weber retaliation claims are true, they fall within an ongoing and increasingly disturbing pattern of federal whistleblowers who have come forward and experienced reprisals themselves instead of having their claims investigated properly."
Matt Taibbi, SEC Rocked By Sex and Corruption Scandal
Hell hath no fury like a whistleblower fired, ridiculed, and scorned in the national press. As you may recall, earlier this year Mr. Weber was labeled a dangerous crank for allegedly wanting to bring a gun to work. He was subsequently cleared in an investigation but was fired nonetheless.
I do not recall hearing about this unfolding scandal at the SEC on the mainstream medias. But I tend to get most of my serious financial news and commentary from Rolling Stone magainze and the Comedy Central network these days anyway.
The story about this lawsuit came out quietly last week in the wire services with non-descript headlines like: Ex-SEC Investigator Sues Agency, Seeks Damages of $20 Million. There was a more in-depth story from Thomson Reuters that portrayed Weber's allegations as 'hard to swallow in their entirety' here.
The Taibbi piece is an interesting read. Matt has an outré phraseology that puts a sharp point on his stories. If there is a Congressional investigation about this I would imagine that C-Span would receive a significant boost in the number of viewers for some of the live testimony. Americans do not care much about financial corruption, or even gross abuses of justice and individual rights including torture, unless it involves sex.
As you may recall there was a minor scandal a couple of years ago when it was revealed that there was a propensity amongst some at the SEC to spend most of the quiet intervals between trips through the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street by surfing the web with a bias towards porn sites.
Apparently not all regulators were so sedentary in their pursuit of kicks, bangs, and thrills of the belly button and below. You can read the details from Taibbi here.
The continuing development of a potential 'cup and handle formation' was discussed intraday here.
As I pointed out last week, the markets were being taken much too far to the sell side, and it appeared to be tax-selling as the VIX failed to show any real fear that was driving the market. It was more of a financial calculation.
So what next. This is a holiday market in the States, and is going to be thinly traded. There are the 'fiscal cliff' which is artificial, and the continuing conflict in Gaza, which is a destabilizing influence on the region and a human tragedy for all concerned. And thirdly there is the economic instability in Europe and the adoption of the bank bailouts "Japanese model" which is crippling the real economy.
All three of these present a situational risk to markets should they take an unfortunate turn for the worse. There could be an associated divergence between stocks and bullion as they may not present as liquidity events but as a risk trade.
Let's see how the market makes its way into December.
Have a pleasant evening.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge.
Yesterday's TIC data held two important pieces of data. The first is that in September, the month that Bernanke launched QEternity, for the first time in 2012, foreigners were net sellers of US Treasurys, dumping a total of $17.3 billion in paper, with foreign official institutions selling $919 million and non-official "Other Foreigners" offloading a whopping $18.3 billion: a record amount for this data series!
The combined outflow was a dramatic reversal from the August $42.9 billion in purchases, from the $341.8 billion in foreign purchases Year To Date, was the first outflow of 2012, the first since the $13.1 billion sold in December 2011, and finally was the biggest sale in US paper since May 2009, or the month Greece had its first (of many) bailouts. While the reason for this dramatic shift in sentiment toward US paper is not defined, perhaps a primary reason is that in September foreigners bought a whopping $23.8 billion in corporate US stocks, the most since July 2009, and certainly motivated by hope that the latest Bernanke easing would send stocks soaring. Oh how wrong they were to believe that, and to fall for the media's latest attempt to force a rotation out of bonds and into stocks.
Source: TIC
Another way to see the sudden drop off in foreign appetite for US Long-Term Treasurys is the following chart of LTM purchases by Foreigners. At $393 billion, this is the lowest total notional since November 2009.
The second, and even more troubling observation, is that in September China "added" another token $300 million in US paper, keeping its total holdings at $1155.5 billion, or a number that has remained unchanged since December 2011, when the Chinese selloff of US Treasurys concluded, which in turn took down its total from a high of $1315 billion in July 2011. So who has taken China's place as America's best oriental friend? Why that supreme basket case of all debt monetization, both foreign and domestic, Japan, which added another $8 billion in US Treasurys in September, bringing its total to $1131 billion, and just $25 billion shy of overtaking China as the biggest holder of US paper. Just because having Y1 quadrillion in total debt of your own is not enough.
Source: TIC
For the terminal basket case that is Japan the move makes sense: since having, and monetizing a ridiculous amount of its own debt has done absolutely nothing to weaken the Yen, the Japanese financial authorities are now resorting to the last case option: monetizing others', in this case the US', debt. In doing so Japan gives a glimpse of what the next round of currency warfare, when every currency in the closed Keynesian loop has to hit bottom first or bust, will look like: central banks buying not only their own debt, but the debt of other nations, all in a desperate attempt to crush their own currencies first (except for Europe, of course, to the ECB, currency intervention means keeping the EUR high or else someone may get an idea there is redenomination risk, and proceed to do the ECB's rightful job - which is to sell the EUR - for them).
Finally, those wondering where China is reinvesting its current account surplus, the answer, at least to our readers, has been well-known for a long time.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
We like to keep our charts just simple enough that a PhD in Economics can understand them; and so we present what must be the scariest chart in the world for much of the developing (and for that matter developed) world.
Demand for food is rising inexorably (as is the demand for fuel) but at the same time supply is falling rapidly as the availability of arable land per capita plunges. Perhaps this (along with central bank liquidity spillovers) explains the 'paradigm' shift in staple prices. Food for thought? (pun intended)
Rising demand... meet falling supply...
and the impact...
Charts: Goldman Sachs
By David A Banister www.MarketTrendForecast.com
The SP 500 finally caved to match or go a bit lower than the SP 500 futures lows of about 11 days ago in yesterday’s action. The drop to the 1390 area is within our 1386-1400 pivot points for a major wave low pattern that we outlined as far back as September 25th for our subscribers.
Our work centers around sentiment and crowd behavior, the headlines are of interest but only tell you the psychology of the publishing arms or talking heads at the time. Often headlines can be negative and the market climbs, or positive and the market is dropping. So the key for our work is figuring out where we are in the sentiment patterns of the crowd, and then to anticipate the pivots ahead of time and invest accordingly.
In fact, in just 24 hours or so we had a 43 point SP 500 drop… this is interesting because the same thing happened at the June 2012 lows as well. Back then we had outlined pivots in the 1250-1270 areas as likely lows, and the market ended up bottoming at 1267. This bottom area yesterday fits within pivots we were able to anticipate 7 weeks ago, without any knowledge of the election or other headlines around the world.
Often, major washout days like yesterday centering around major news (Election) can create the final panic sell-off to complete a wave pattern of negative sentiment to the downside and then reverse the markets higher in new bullish pattern. To be sure, there are many sentiment headwinds like the Fiscal Cliff and more in the coming weeks…but markets tend to price all that in ahead of time right?
At yesterday's lows the market seems to have completed all requirements for a C wave of an ABC complicated decline from the 1474 SP 500 highs and so far an 8 Fibonacci week correction period.
What we expect is a rally now and again, we need to get back up and over 1423-1427 pivots this time and hold more than 24 hours, but the odds of a rally are now at 75% from here. IF we fail to hold the 1388 pivots, then the next levels are 1372 and 1363 to watch.
Bottom Line? Most metrics have been met for a wave pattern low. (Whether this be wave 4 or wave 2 doesnt much matter just yet.) The market now has a chance to start a wave 5 or wave 3 rally to the upside. Let's watch 1388 areas to hold first, then we will watch 1403, then 1423-1427 pivots to clear. We are neutral to bullish now after this washout
Back on Sept 25th we did a chart forecasting a drop to 1395-1400 as likely before the downtrend would end, now let’s see if the market can get some legs here. We have included that old chart here to show you how crowds are fairly predictable in their behavioral patterns in advance.
Consider joining us for free weekly reports, or you can get a subscription discount and daily reports at www.MarketTrendForecast.com
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Sometimes, it just pays to keep it simple stupid. At some point, the dismal economic reality of our post-credit-creation-miracle boom world will reassert itself in asset prices. The catalyst may not be obvious (like a close-election reminding a nation of sheep just how divided we are as a people and implicitly as a political class - and what that means for our future fiscal probity); but it is coming. 'Cycles' cycle; the Fed has fired its bazooka; and OMT omnipotence is in doubt;and the only way we get 'moar money' from our central planners is if their hand is forced by a reversion to reality...
US economic data may be surprising to the upside (of economist's expectations - weighted by what is clearly now the most bullshit pre-election datasets we have seen) but as we have said before - there is no decoupling, it is lagging and leading behavior (combined with the normal pre-election upward bias of hopium in sentiment). The chart above makes it clear that while some have seen positive moves by US-specific macro data surprises, the rest of the core international economies are doing decidedly badly - and US equities remain ignorant (for now).
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
It would appear Mark Twain's infamous quote that "history does not repeat, but it does rhyme" has never been so apt. The following eight charts suggest the rhythm is getting louder and louder. How is it possible? It's nonsense? Well at the heart of the markets, it is still us humans and our endearing greed, fear, and heuristic biases that drive the flows... trade accordingly.
The current price action in the S&P 500 is eerily similar to the movement leading up to the collapse in 1987...
The Dow is also tracking this move almost perfectly over the last two years...
The next three charts are particularly concerning...
Here is the Dow leading up to the 1987 drop - showing its distance from the 55-week average and the collapse once it crossed...
here is an unnamed stock's price action (percentage change) over the past three years...
and AAPL's price appreciation from the lows in 2009 and its 55-week average...
It's not just 1987... Here is the Dow analog again the 1977-78 period and 1905-1910 period...
and the Dow Transports are playing out a very similar pattern to the 1960s-70s...
And a Bonus Chart - for those who prefer to look at Bond Analogs... Here is the current move in 10Y US Treasury yields overlaid on 1992's movement... spooky no? and somewhat fits with a view of weakness into year-end, downgrade on debt-ceiling and collapse...
Machiavelli accounts for this 'repetitive' oscillation by arguing that virtù (valor and political effectiveness) produces peace, peace brings idleness (ozio), idleness disorder, and disorder rovina (ruin). In turn, from rovina springs order, from order virtù, and from this, glory and good fortune.
Machiavelli, as had the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, saw human nature as remarkably stable - steady enough for the formulation of rules of political behavior. Machiavelli wrote in his Discorsi:
Whoever considers the past and the present will readily observe that all cities and all peoples... ever have been animated by the same desires and the same passions; so that it is easy, by diligent study of the past, to foresee what is likely to happen in the future in any republic, and to apply those remedies that were used by the ancients, or not finding any that were employed by them, to devise new ones from the similarity of events.
“Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.” — André Gide
Charts: Citi
Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Few charts capture as effectively the shift in foreign demand for US Treasurys over the past 4 years, or under the Obama administration, as the following two, courtesy of the latest TBAC Q4 refunding presentation. They are quite self-explanatory.
Total foreign demand: Bills and Coupons.
And foreign demand for just Coupon paper.
So who is picking up the slack?
And what is another name for Primary Dealers?...think POMO.... Why, the Fed of course.
The more you learn about Fibonacci, the more amazed you will be at its importance
By Elliott Wave International
If you've studied the financial markets, even for a short time, you've probably heard the term "Fibonacci numbers." The ratios and relationships derived from this mathematical sequence are applied to the markets to help determine targets and retracement levels.
Did you know that Fibonacci numbers are found in nature as well? In fact, we can see examples of the Fibonacci sequence all around us, from the ebb and flow of ocean tides to the shape of a seashell. Even our human bodies are examples of Fibonacci. Read more about the fascinating phenomenon of Fibonacci in nature.
Let's start with a refresher on Fibonacci numbers. If we start at 0 and then go to the next whole integer number, which is 1, and add 0 to 1, that gives us the second 1. If we then take that number 1 and add it again to the previous number, which is of course 1, we have 1 plus 1 equals 2. If we add 2 to its previous number of 1, then 1 plus 2 gives us 3, and so on. 2 plus 3 gives us 5, and we can do this all the way to infinity. This series of numbers, and the way we arrive at these numbers, is called the Fibonacci sequence. We refer to a series of numbers derived this way as Fibonacci numbers.
We can go back to the beginning and divide one number by its adjacent number - so 1?1 is 1.0, 1?2 is .5, 2?3 is .667, and so on. If we keep doing that all the way to infinity, that ratio approaches the number .618. This is called the Golden Ratio, represented by the Greek letter phi (pronounced "fie"). It is an irrational number, which means that it cannot be represented by a fraction of whole integers. The inverse of .618 is 1.618. So, in other words, if we carry the series forward and take the inverse of each of these numbers, that ratio also approaches 1.618. The Golden Ratio, .618, is the only number that will also be equal to its inverse when added to 1. So, in other words, 1 plus .618 is 1.618, and the inverse of .618 is also 1.618.
This is a diagram of the Golden Spiral. The Golden Spiral is a type of logarithmic spiral that is made up of a number of Fibonacci relationships, or more specifically, a number of Golden Ratios. For example, if we take a specific arc and divide it by its diameter, that will also give us the Golden Ratio 1.618. We can take, for example, arc WY and divide it by its diameter of WY. That produces the multiple 1.618. Certain arcs are also related by the ratio of 1.618. If we take the arc XY and divide that by arc WX, we get 1.618. If we take radius 1 (r1), compare it with the next radius of an arc that's at a 90° angle with r1, which is r2, and divide r2 by r1, we also get 1.618.
Now here are some pictures of this Golden Spiral in various aspects of nature. For example, on the left is a whirlpool that displays the Golden Spiral and, therefore, these Fibonacci mathematical properties. We also see the Golden Spiral in the formation of hurricanes (center) and in the chambered nautilus shell (right), which also happens to be a common background that Elliott Wave International uses for a number of its presentations and graphics.
We can also see the Golden Ratio in the DNA molecule. Research has shown that if you look at the height of the DNA molecule relative to its length, it is in the proportion of .618:1. If we look at the components of the DNA molecule, there is a major groove in the left section and a minor groove in the right section. The major groove is equal to .618 of the entire length of the DNA molecule, and the minor groove is equal to .382 of the entire length.
This graphic of the human body also shows how the Golden Ratio exists in certain relationships of the human anatomy.
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Learn How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading If you'd like to learn more about Fibonacci and how to apply it to your trading strategy, download the entire 14-page free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading. EWI Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman explains:
See how easy it is to use Fibonacci in your trading. Download your free eBook today >> |
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The traditional excuse apologists for America's collapsing labor force participation rate use every month is that due to "demographics" and retiring baby boomers, increasingly more old workers are no longer counted by the BLS and as a result, are skewing the labor force. That's where they leave it because digging into details is not really anyone's forte anymore. This would be great if it was true. It isn't.
A month ago in "55 And Under? No Job For You" we presented visually and quite simply that of the 3.3 million jobs "created" (updated for October's data), a gasp-inducing 3.8 million has gone to workers aged 55 and over, or the one cohort that according to conventional wisdom is retiring, and actively leaving the workforce. How can America's elderly workers account for more than the total? Simple: workers in the young (16-19) and prime (25-54) cohorts have cumulatively lost a whopping 1.3 million, with just the 25-54 age group losing 842,000 jobs (don't believe us: spot check it right here courtesy of the Fed).
In other words, America's edlerly are not only not in a rush to retire, they are reentering the workforce (thanks to the Chairman's genocidal savings policy which has just rendered the value of all future deposits worthless thanks to ZIRP), and in doing so preventing younger workers, in their prime years, from generating incremental jobs.
And nowhere is this more visible than in today's jobs report. On the surface, the US generated a whopping 413,000 jobs (after generating a massive 873,000 last month) according to the Household Survey in October. That's great, unfortunately breaking down this cumulative addition by age cohort confirms precisely what we have said: all the jobs are going to old workers, who have zero wage bargaining leverage (as they just want to have a day to day paycheck). To wit: when broken down by age group, the total October increase shows that of the new jobs, 10.7% went to those aged 16-19 (source), 11.6% went to those aged 20-24 (source), a tiny 9.8% went to the prime age group: 25-54 (source), and a massive 67.8% went to America's baby boomers: those aged 55 and over (source), and who refuse to leave the workforce and make way for others.
Visually, this is as follows:
But the most eye-opening chart is this one showing jobs in the 25-54 and 55 and over categories:
And one wonders why America's labor force has no bargaining power, and why average hourly wages are imploding, and why nobody can afford anything anymore...
Finally, all of the above excludes previous disclosures that the bulk of jobs created in the past 4 years is in the part-time job catergory.
Improve your Elliott wave pattern identification skills with this lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy at Elliott Wave International.
Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Among Elliott wave traders, you will likely find an especially high percentage of investors and traders who incorporate moving averages into their Wave analysis.
Here's why: you can use moving averages to identify Elliott waves.
Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows how to take complex trading methods and teach them in a way you can immediately understand and apply -- his step-by-step tutorials are beneficial to traders at any level of experience. Jeffrey is also well-known for combining ancillary technical tools to strengthen his Elliott wave analysis.
The following lesson provides a powerful example of how moving averages can strengthen your ability to identify Elliott Patterns. It is excerpted from Jeffrey's free 10-page eBook, How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages. (Click here to get your copy of this free eBook now.)
If you're new to the Wave Principle, I recommend using a moving average to get you started, and the reason why is that a moving average overlaid on a price chart will help train your eye to see developing Elliott wave patterns.
For an example of a schematic Elliott wave, look at the figure below:
If you've read The Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost, you know that wave patterns are illustrated as line diagrams.
When you look at a real price chart rather than a schematic, the basic chart is typically an open-high-low-close price chart. Each price bar represents a single period and is illustrated by a vertical line with a small mark to the left and a small mark to the right as seen in the next figure:
The little lower line on the left-hand side of the vertical bar is the open; the little upper line on the right-hand side of the vertical line is the close; the top of the line is the day's high or that trading period's extreme; and the bottom of the line is that trading period's low.
Here's the thing: Whenever you're making the transition from looking at a textbook diagram to actually counting Elliott waves on a real price chart, it can be confusing to the eye. If you use a moving average, it will help you to see the wave pattern more easily.
Let me prove my case more thoroughly with this chart of Corn:
The blue line is an 8-period simple moving average of the close, which clearly shows that a five-wave decline has unfolded from the upper left-hand side of this price chart. With the aid of a moving average, the subdivisions within this selloff are more easily discernible than with the untrained naked eye.
Also, notice that the slope of the move up in wave 4 is shallow. This detail is important because one of the key characteristics of countertrend price action is that it moves slowly, thus its slope will be inherently more shallow than what one can expect to encounter when a motive wave is in force.
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Learn How to Trade the Highest Probability Opportunities: Moving Averages No matter what your level of experience in the markets, you'll be amazed at how quickly you can benefit when you include moving averages in your Elliott wave analysis. Now you can learn how to apply them to your trading and investing in this free 10-page eBook. Learn step-by-step how moving averages can help you find high-probability trading opportunities. Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now >> |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Moving Averages and the Wave Principle. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Courtesy of Pater Tenebrarum of Acting Man blog
It is always amazing to observe how people become less risk averse after risk has markedly increased and more risk averse after it has markedly decreased.
The stock market is held to be 'safe' after it has risen for many weeks or months, while it is considered 'risky' after it has declined. The bigger the rally, the safer the waters are deemed to be, and the opposite holds for declines. At the March 2009 low, the daily stock market sentiment index (DSI, a daily sentiment measure of futures traders) had declined to an all time low of 3%. In other words, 97% of traders were bearish at the lowest risk buy point of the past 15 years.
One term that is associated in peoples' minds with rising prices is 'certainty'. For some reason, rising prices are held to indicate a more 'certain' future, which one can look forward to with more 'confidence'. 'Uncertainty' by contrast is associated with downside volatility in stocks. In reality, the future is always uncertain. Most people seem to regard accidental participation in a bull market cycle with as a kind of guarantee of a bright future, when all that really happened is that they got temporarily lucky.
Short sellers are a very small group of market participants. This is not surprising. For one thing, falling stock prices have negative psychological connotations. Most people naturally gravitate to the optimism attending rising prices. For another, the gains a short seller can make are limited, as a stock cannot go below zero. Last but not least, stocks (as measured by stock indexes and averages) actually rise about two thirds of the time. This is mainly due to two reasons: constant monetary inflation and the 'survivor bias' of the indexes.
Short sellers don't have it easy – their research has to be superior to run-of-the-mill research, they are often forced to endure mass outbreaks of irrationality (think internet bubble) and when prices actually fall, they are usually vilified and falsely blamed for 'making' prices decline.
To this day many people are e.g. blaming the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman to short selling activity in their stocks. In reality, both firms were stuffed to the rafters with worthless mortgage-backed toxic dreck on extreme leverage and were essentially among the 'walking dead' in the weeks preceding their downfall. The short sellers were merely cognizant of this reality.
As noted above, the market rises about two thirds of the time, so it is generally safer to be a bull. For instance, perma-bullish analysts like Laszlo Birinyi or Abby Joseph Cohen can be sure that they will be right 66% of the time by simply staying bullish no matter what happens. This utter disregard of the risk- reward equation can occasionally lead to costly experiences for their followers when the markets decline. For instance, A.J. Cohen's 'must own' basket of technology stocks for 2001 eventually declined by nearly 90%. Laszlo Birinyi fell in love with a subprime lender in early 2007 due to its high yield. To be sure, he didn't recommend to bet the farm on it (quote: “Don't put your retirement funds here or take a large position, but at four times trailing earnings, it's cheap. And there has to be a bottom somewhere.”). There actually was a bottom somewhere: strong technical support was found at zero.
The 'risk appetite index', an amalgam of the Citigroup Macro Risk Index, Westpac Risk Aversion Index and UBS G10 Carry Risk Index Plus. The herd simply follows prices – click for better resolution.
What makes the current juncture especially fascinating is the fact that the Fed has fired its 'QE' bullet at a time when 'risk assets' appeared already fairly overbought and inflation expectations were near the high end of the range of the past five years.
Few people seemed to take this fact into consideration: the herd has been well-trained by Ben Bernanke and reacted according to the experience made during the last two 'QE' iterations. Note however that $40 billion per month in additional Fed balance sheet expansion isn't what it once used to be. It remains to be seen how much of it will 'leak out' into the money supply (this will partly depend on how many securities are bought from non-banks and what the banks decide to do with the additional excess reserves that will be created).
The point is that there is actually no precedent for the current situation. Previously the Fed intervened or announced upcoming interventions at junctures when the markets were in trouble and close to 'oversold' status, with inflation expectations very low. Note in this context that former 'hawk', Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota has joined the dovish camp at this rather unusual point in time. The recent burst of market enthusiasm has meanwhile been accompanied by an inordinate number of technical divergences, including a strong warning sign in the form of a Dow Theory divergence between industrial and transportation stocks. All of these are to be filed under 'they won't matter until they do', but it would be a mistake to simply ignore them.
5 year US inflation breakeven rate (this is calculated by subtracting the yield of inflation-indexed securities from nominal treasury bond yields) – click for better resolution.
A wedge-like advance in the SPX – click for better resolution.
The broad market as represented by the NYSE composite index continues to diverge markedly from the SPX – click for better resolution.
As EWI recently pointed out, the only stock indexes that have been rising strongly are those with active futures contracts. Furthermore, an index constructed of the 75 stocks with the biggest institutional ownership is still vastly underperforming the rest of the stock market.
The 'institutional index', a cap-weighted index of the 75 stock with the biggest institutional ownership – click for better resolution.
There have been a number of interesting developments in positioning indicators and surveys. For instance, the dollar-weighted net short position held by commercial hedgers in stock index futures is close to an eight year high. The Rydex bull/bear ratio is literally 'going off the charts', as does speculation in call options.
This is in sharp contrast with the average recommended Wall Street strategist asset allocation to stocks, which stands at a mere 41.5%, the lowest level since the early 1980's. This latter phenomenon goes hand in hand with historically high values for the 'policy uncertainty index'.
Among sentiment polls, we find the Market Vane and Consensus Inc. bull ratios quite stretched at 69% and 72% respectively, while the Investors Intelligence bull ratio at 0.69 is 'getting there' (its historic highs are in the high 0.70's). The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) bull ratio by contrast stands at a fairly middling 0.53%.
The CSFB 'fear index', a variation on the Ansbacher index which measures the relative prices of out-of-the money calls and puts on the SPX (the CSFB index measures a 'zero cost collar' – it determines how far out of the money the next put is that one can buy for the premium received for selling a 10% ootm call) stands at the highest level since late March, a sign that professional investors are eager to hedge their positions with SPX puts (note that this is not a contrary indicator).
To this we would note that the main difference between the indicators listed above that are in such unusually strong opposition to each other is that positioning indicators that measure what market participants are actually doing with their money mostly show that traders are betting on a continuation of the rally. By contrast, the indicators that are contrarian bullish are of the anecdotal variety: Wall Street strategists make recommendations, and 'policy uncertainty' likewise expresses mere opinions. There is often a difference between what people say and what they do.
The Rydex bull-bear asset ratio has recorded multi-year highs in 2012 – click for better resolution.
Another measure of risk appetite is the silver-gold ratio. In a way it is the equivalent of a credit spread (we have discussed the topic in detail in “The Gold-Silver Ratio as an Early Warning Indicator”).
The silver price will tend to rise relative to the gold price when economic confidence is waxing – i.e., it will exhibit a tendency to follow the stock market. There are occasional exceptions to this rule: historically these have occurred when deep-pocketed investors have piled into silver (the Hunt Brothers in the 1970's, and the Sprott funds in early 2011).
Bob Hoye notes that whenever the RSI of the silver-gold ratio approaches the 90 level, one must begin to exercise caution and watch for a potential reversal in the ratio (as you will see below, this rule can also be temporarily invalidated). The occasional signal failure should not detract from the signal's validity: similar to all technically based indicators it only informs us about probabilities. The reversal following a high RSI reading is often a sign of impending liquidity trouble. The indicator is at present in 'heads up' mode.
The silver-gold ratio: a dangerously high RSI reading has been recorded, but there is as of yet no reversal – click for better resolution.
The Dow Transportation Average versus the Industrial Average (yellow line): A tale of two divergences: in 2007/8 the transportation stocks made a higher high relative to a lower high in industrial stocks. This time the opposite is happening, as economically sensitive cyclical stocks have generally weakened relative to defensive stocks.
Only 20% of the stocks in the Transportation Average are above their 200 day exponential moving average, so its internals are even worse than the price level of the average would suggest – click for better resolution.
We have mentioned extremes in speculation in call options above. There has recently been an interesting development in that context that deserves attention. First we show the 'options speculation index' published by sentimentrader – this is an index that measures opening transactions across all US options exchanges and compares all bullish against all bearish activities (buying calls to open and selling puts to open counts as bullish while selling calls to open and buying puts to open is counted as bearish). This is one of the most comprehensive indicators of option trader sentiment. It has spent a great deal of time in rarefied air since early 2010. It is noteworthy that extremes have not always had an effect right away and often it has paid to wait for divergences between prices and the indicator. Still, it is once again well above the levels seen near the 2007 highs.
The options speculation index is back in 'red alert' territory – click for better resolution.
It is interesting how a specific group of traders has behaved, namely those buying 50 or more contracts at a time. There has been a big spike in call buying by these traders. Unfortunately interpretation of their behavior is not straightforward – but if we were to guess, the most likely reason was probably to retain exposure to further upside after taking profits in the underlying stocks. Note that the equivalent 'small trader' put-call ratio also shows growing enthusiasm for the rally, although it still slightly below past extremes.
Large traders have suddenly piled into calls – click for better resolution.
Finally, two further indicators that are illustrating the current sentiment picture. The first is the NAAIM active managers survey. A detailed description of the indicator can be found at www.naaim.org.
The NAAIM active fund manager sentiment. Responses can range from '200% short' to '200% long'. From these responses a mean showing 'net average exposure' is constructed – click for better resolution.
In connection with the NAAIM survey, there was an interesting occurrence in the late July summary. A list of the weekly responses is depicted below. Note the two columns labeled 'bearish' and 'bullish'. These show the extremes recorded at every weekly survey, this is to say the net positioning of the most bearish and the most bullish manager. On July 25, the most bearish manager was flat, while the most bullish manager was 200% long:
Summary of NAAIM responses since July 18. On July 25 a highly unusual combination was recorded: the most bearish manager was merely flat, the most bullish one was 200% long.
At the time this reading was recorded, Jason Goepfert of sentimentrader created a statistic that shows all the previous occurrences of this combination and the subsequent market performance over short to medium term time horizons. Note that the relatively low mean recorded in this particular week may weaken the message of the signal somewhat, but his is still an interesting statistic:
The market's performance subsequent to the 'no net short, most net long 200%' combination in the NAAIM survey. It has already happened twice in 2012, the first time was on May 16. As an be seen, this has often been followed by very weak market returns going forward, however one should keep in mind that the survey only exists since 2006, so many of the readings happened to occur during the bear market of 2007-2009.
Lastly, a chart that shows the current Rydex bond ratio. This ratio is calculated by dividing the total assets in Rydex Inverse Goverment Long Bond Fund (bearish on bond prices) by the total assets in Rydex Government Bond Fund 1.2x (bullish on bond prices). The higher the ratio, the more assets are devoted to shorting the long bond.
It didn't take long for the bears to pounce – there is a large contingent of traders waiting to 'catch the top' of the treasury bond market. This makes us think that the US treasury bond market will over time become ever more akin to the JGB market, this is to say it will probably remain at very low yields for a very long time (although upside progress will obviuously be limited with yields already near all time lows) . By the time the actual turn comes, people likely won't be inclined to short the market that quickly. It is noteworthy that the highs in the ratio are steadily declining, but all in all this seems to be a decent contrary indicator.
The Rydex bond ratio: currently 4.86 times more assets are devoted to shorting the bond market than are in the fund that bets on higher bond prices. In the past, peaks in the ratio have usually coincided with lows in bond prices – click for better resolution.
Note in this context also an article that appeared late last week at Bloomberg: “Bearish Treasury Bets Hit a Record Amid Inflation Concern”
Options traders are paying record prices to protect against swings in long-term U.S. Treasuries relative to stocks amid concern inflation will accelerate.
Implied volatility, the key gauge of options prices, for contracts with an exercise level closest to the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) has climbed to 16.65, compared with 13.85 for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), according to three-month data compiled by Bloomberg. The ratio between the two ETFs reached 1.24 on Sept. 14, the highest since at least 2005.”
(emphasis added)
It is probably fair to assume that the next low in bond prices will happen concurrently with a peak in the stock market.
When we wrote last about gold and gold stocks it was fairly easy to adopt a constructive stance, as the sector was very oversold and sentiment was almost uniformly bearish. For instance, we concluded “Gold and Gold Stocks, A Technical Update” by writing:
“Given the bullish fundamental backdrop for gold – real interest rates remain negative and central banks seem eager to resume monetary pumping as economic confidence once again wanes – the probability is high that the current consolidation phase will once again lead to an upside breakout. If this is indeed the case, then gold stocks are a screaming buy at current levels, in spite of all the well documented [operational and cost] problems.”
We further documented the bottoming process in mid August in “Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks”, coming to a similarly positive conclusion. To be sure, we didn't expect the sector to decline as much as it did before putting in a reversal, but these two articles are probably worth revisiting for future reference, due to their extensive overview of the technicals: this is what tends to happen at lows.
We will soon revisit the topic in more detail again, but wanted to note on this occasion that it is not so easy anymore now that the metals as well as the mining stocks have risen quite a bit in a very short time. One possibility that occurred to us is that the current move to the upside will resemble the preceding downtrend in some respects – i.e., it could be that it will be similarly relentless. It should be noted though that this is actually a low probability bet. It is more likely that some sort of short term correction will soon begin, leaving the medium term uptrend intact. The reason to expect that the uptrend won't end on an intermediate term basis yet is that the ratio of gold stocks to gold has finally decisively reversed its previous downtrend.
The HUI-Gold ratio has broken through a downtrend line that has limited advances for more than a year. It is actually astonishing that a ratio chart is hewing so closely to technical levels. Note that lateral resistance awaits at the 0.31 level – click for better resolution.
Why risk in the rebalanced portfolio is ramping higher
By Elliott Wave International
During market pullbacks, financial advisors use a boilerplate response: "Let's rebalance the portfolio." Investors have heard that one for years.
The recommended allocation varies depending on a client's age and risk tolerance, but it typically involves shifting funds from stocks to bond holdings.
The evidence shows that many investors did just that in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis - at the fastest rate in decades. Bond fund assets have risen eight-fold over the past 22 years.
Investors now hold more than $800 billion in bond funds. Just take a look at this chart from a June 6, Elliott Wave Theorist Special Report.
Investors who increased their bond allocation probably feel financially safer.
After all, bond funds have been more stable than stock funds, and they provided higher returns than money market funds.
Yet extrapolating the past into the future is often a major mistake.
During the coming collapse in the value of debt, investors' interest in diversified funds of all stripes-debt, equity and commodity-will fall precipitously. The drop will come as a shock, especially to those who "rebalanced" from stocks and commodities to bonds after the markets panicked in 2008.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, Special Report, June 2012
What should safety-conscious investors do?
The Theorist Special Report offers a clear answer, one that's just as relevant now as when it was published in June.
Free Report: Major Top in the Bond Market on the Way
Prechter's message to bondholders today: Beware.
Prechter warned investors about looming destruction in tech stocks, real estate, blue chips and commodities -- all at a time when conventional wisdom considered them "safe."
Here's what he's saying now: Whether you have your money directly in bonds or your mutual fund does, your savingscould be at risk.
You're just one click away. Follow this link for instant access to the first four pages of Prechter's free report.
Read the first 4 pages now, zero obligation >>
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Unsuspecting Bond Fund Investors Are Set Up for a Shock. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
I'm editor at Phil's Stock World, and editor for Stock World Weekly. My background is in the biological sciences, and law. After a brief career in the legal field, I changed directions and am now working as an editor, and very much enjoying my experiences in the editing world.
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